Archive for May 28th, 2009

It’s Not Going Awaaa-ay, contd.

28 May, 2009

From ProMED Mail, this morning:


To summarize the current situation, as of 6:00 AM GMT on 26 May 2009 a total of 12 954 cases and 92 deaths of influenza A (H1N1) infection have been officially reported to WHO from 46 countries, up from 12 515 confirmed cases and 91 deaths from 46 countries on 23 May 2009.

According to a later PAHO update (from 18:00 GMT-4) a total of 12 536 confirmed cases and 95 deaths are attributable to the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in 15 countries in the Americas region. There is mention of a case in Chile with a history of travel to the Dominican Republic. According to newswires today (26 May 2009) and earlier (see prior ProMED-mail posts), there have been several cases in other countries with a history of travel to the Dominican Republic, even though the Dominican Republic has not officially confirmed any cases of influenza A (H1N1) as yet.

According to newswires, Singapore has confirmed its 1st case and New York City has confirmed 2 additional deaths attributable to influenza A (H1N1) infection — both in individuals with history of preexisting diseases.

For a map of reported confirmed cases, worldwide, as of 06:00 GMT 26 May 2009, see here.



So: with >10x the number of confirmed cases than there were suspected cases in Mexico at the start of the outbreak, we have 92 deaths in ~13 000 cases.  This means the case fatality rate is 0.7% – compared to the accepted figure of 0.2% for normal flu.  Not much different to the previous figure I calculated just 9 days ago – and it’s still spreading.  4000 more cases in that period.

We’re in for a long winter, here in the southern hemisphere…and us without a vaccine.  Ah, well.